Based on World Cup odds, Spain opened as the favorites to win the tournament.
Oddsmakers opened La Furia Roja at +450 to win the 2026 World Cup. Slight movement has occurred since the market opened, but Spain has returned to that price as of May 14.
The biggest change? Spain went from sitting alone atop the board to tied with France. The 2018 World Cup winners opened at +650 and have since moved ahead of England to +450.
How will Spain fare at the 2026 World Cup? Get my Spain 2026 World Cup prediction below.
Spain World Cup Prediction 2026
Based on Spain’s easy path throughout the knockout rounds and prolific attacking record, I predict Spain Reaches the Semifinal (+100).
Anything short of a quarterfinal appearance by Spain would shock me. The tournament favorites begin play in one of the easiest groups as a -500 favorite to finish atop the group.
Assuming that 83.3% implied probability hits, it places Spain in one of the easiest quadrants, starting with the round of 32.
Spain would qualify as one of three group winners to sit in that eight-team section. Joining them would be the winners of Group D (USA/Turkiye) and Group G (Belgium).
Two third-place teams and three second-place teams round out the group. If odds hold, it will be Croatia, Colombia and Austria.
Outside Turkiye, who played Spain to a draw earlier this year, I lack faith in any of those other teams delivering a shock result.
The 2010 World Cup winners claimed victory at the 2024 European Championships. Spain beat Croatia in the group stage and added knockout round victories over Germany and France.
No team has managed to hand Spain an outright loss since the calendar turned to 2025. In qualifying, elite attacking play proved a staple of Spain’s record.
Take the two matches against Turkiye. The 2-2 draw saw Spain edge their European counterparts 2.3-1.75 on post-shot expected goals, per FotMob.
Earlier, Spain traveled to Istanbul and captured a 6-0 win. That fixture saw Luis de la Fuente’s side amass a 3.2-0.4 post-shot xG margin.
It marked a stark departure from the Euros. Spain ran a bit lucky by their metrics against Germany and France before obliterating England.
In the final, Spain won 2-1 with a 2.2-0.55 psxG margin against the Three Lions.
Pair those performances with a favorable draw and I predict the favorites reach at least the semifinals.
